It’s time to put the kettle on, brew a fresh one, and gaze into those tea leaves in a bid to see which new road and gravel bikes could be released this year. While supply chain issues were the source of major hold ups in recent years, it may well be the opposite problem – oversupply – that is delaying bike launches now. While there are still heaps of heavily discounted bikes around, a newly released bike at its full price is going to be a harder sell than ever, especially at a time when the pace of geometry change is slowing down.

Of course, we don’t foresee any mind-blowing changes to occur in road or gravel, though it seems a few brands in this list may have some catching up to do, particularly in the departments of aero-optimization, integration and tire clearance. I also think we’ll start to see more of the gravel bikes, at least, land with neat frame storage solutions, or integrated tools, features that have proved popular in recent years on mountain bikes.

For those who aren’t familiar with the process, bike companies typically refresh a model every three years or so, which means that compiling this list is as scientific as going through the archives and looking at the bikes that haven’t been updated in a few years. There have been also a few teasers released, with intent or inadvertently, over the last few months, as athletes have tried out the new bikes ahead of their official launch.

Keep in mind that this list focuses on updates or revisions to existing models – there may well be completely new bikes in the works, too.

Cannondale SystemSix

The SystemSix is now incredibly long in the tooth, its latest iteration having been released in 2018. It has, however, aged incredibly well. Independent wind tunnel testing evidencing how it remains one of the fastest aero road bikes on the market, it’s coming up on six years. Will Cannondale continue to rest on their laurels for a seventh? I doubt it very much.

Cannondale’s all-rounder road bike, the SuperSix EVO, was updated last year, and we saw it move to that very narrow headtube for improved aero efficiency. I predict that any new iteration of the SystemSix will go the same way, using that patented triangular steerer tube design that permits the necessary real estate. And, like the higher end models of the SuperSix EVO, we reckon this one too will see more cockpit integration, perhaps with another one-piece bar from Momo.

Cannondale CAAD 14

Cannondale’s aluminum road race bike last saw an overhaul in 2019, where we saw its overall shape change dramatically with the introduction of a sloping top tube and dropped seat stays. Over the years, its evolution has fallen in line with the SuperSix EVO (below), giving it a not dissimilar silhouette to that premium carbon offering.

Though Cannondale has kept the CAAD models to a press fit bottom bracket for around two decades, 2024 could be the year that changes to a threaded option. The SuperSix EVO road race bike, the latest Synapse and the Topstone Carbon now benefit from a threaded BB, and we’d expect a new CAAD go the same way.

Cannondale SuperSix Evo CX/SE

Cannondale teased an updated SuperSix EVO CX last year. While the tube shapes look to be entirely unchanged, we can see that it now has cables routed internally through the headset. The only example we’ve seen thus far saw the cables run through the bar and into an updated Cannondale ONE stem. That means this CX version is also likely to benefit from the Delta steerer tube (first seen on the SuperSix Evo) with its narrow triangular portion, freeing up space inside the headtube for a cable and hoses.

BMC Roadmachine

BMC‘s endurance or all-road bike, the Roadmachine, was last updated in 2019. There’s little to critique on this bike, with the notable exception of its 33mm tire clearance. While that might have been somewhat acceptable for an all-road bike in 2019, in 2024 it is well off the back. It’s high time BMC rectified that, to keep the Roadmachine a relevant option to those partial to modern all-road tire clearances.

Factor Ostro VAM

Last updated in 2018, the Factor Ostro VAM is well overdue for a refresh. This one could bring on some key aero developments that we’ve seen competitors bring to the fore in recent years. I’m talking about features like the narrower headtubes pushed by Cannondale and Specialized, not to mention drag-reducing deeper fork legs.

Not a moment too soon, Factor look to be rectifying that. Last weekend, Simon Clarke was spotted on an unreleased Factor Ostro VAM which, low and behold, has a much narrower head tube thanks to the recessed headset position, and much deeper fork legs. There are also tweaks to some other frame shapes, with a chunkier downtube and an aggressively tapered top tube. See the details here. No word from Factor as to when this one will come to market, but surely it can’t be far off.

Pinarello Dogma F

Pinarello usually works with 2-3 year intervals for its bike updates, and we’re now beyond three years since the Dogma F was updated. It’s highly likely on the horizon, but how will they make this multiple grand tour winning bike even better than it already is? As per, I’m sure it’ll be lighter, stiffer and more aerodynamic than the current iteration, and I’m guessing we won’t have to wait too long to see exactly how that materializes.

Trek Emonda

While the Trek Madone aero road bike saw an update last year, the Emonda has existed in its current guise since 2019. In addition to the mere passing of time, there are other more firm indications that this one is due an imminent refresh. Leaked on the Weight Weenies Forum is a Lidl-Trek team rider, Giulio Ciccone, on what looks to be a new Emonda.

Giving the game away are the facts that, 1. the bike was devoid of any decals, and 2. it has a massive hole in the seat tube, where the seat stays skirt around to meet the top tube directly. The design is much like that of the IsoFlow seat tube hole on the Madone, so isn’t this just an updated Madone, then? Well, probably not, given that bike was only updated only last year. That, and the markedly narrower tube shapes indicate this is not an aero road bike.

Giant TCR and TCX

While the Giant Defy all-road bike and Propel aero road bike were updated within the last 12 months, the TCR, originally invented by Mike Burrows, has been somewhat left behind. Now on its ninth generation, the TCR has been in the current version of ‘total compact road’ geometry since 2020. It is yet to get full internal cable routing, so we expect any update to tidy cables and hoses away for a cleaner cockpit.

And, while Elmar Reinders’ Giant TCX is not a prototype cyclocross bike – it is in fact a frame that’s been modified specifically by Elmar without Giant’s consent – we wouldn’t be surprised if this one too sees an update in 2024.

Canyon Aeroad

Mathieu Van der Poel has been doing some serious winning on the current Canyon Aeroad, and so at least from that point of view, there is little justification to update this one, despite it having been around for a few years. If it’s not broken don’t fix it, right?

Except…

There have been instances of failure with the proprietary seat post, owing to the aggressive tapering offering up a weak point. And, MVDP himself switched to an updated seat post clamp himself. An updated seatpost clamp has been rolled out to some markets, including the UK. 

So, Canyon has been rolling out minor updates without making too much of a song and dance about it. Could that be because there is a new bike on the way?

Scott Addict Gravel

Scott’s gravel bike isn’t necessarily in need of a refresh. It’s light, comfortable, fun to ride, and it has plenty of tire clearance. Still, I am sure the designers will come up with something to pique buyers’ interests. Some frame storage, or integrated tools, perhaps?

Cervelo Aspero

The Aspero gravel bike is Cervelo‘s best sellers. This performance-oriented gravel bike and the more road-oriented Caledonia accounted for a whopping 60% of the Canadian brand’s sales in 2021. Thus, this is a bike that Cervelo should be bending over backwards to keep relevant. It has been around in its current format since 2021, and so we may see a new model coming toward the back end of 2024.

How will it change? Hard to say, but there’s likely some room to make this one a little more aero-optimized. We may see the tube sizes grow in line with that, which could present an opportunity to introduce some frame storage for carrying essentials without a loss in aero efficiency. Either way, Cervelo will be looking to ensure this one can keep up with the Canyon Grail.